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BASK vs Torlak — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

BASK
BASK
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Torlak
Torlak
9/26/2025Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 6Stadion Careva Ćuprija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

BASK46%
×Draw25%
Torlak29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BASK
1.56
Torlak
1.19

BASK creates 31% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 42 away

creates per match

BASK
1.59
Torlak
1.21

allows per match

BASK
1.18
Torlak
1.52

finishing

BASK+0.00on par
Torlak+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BASK ↓

Torlak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

BASK or draw
71%
BASK or Torlak
75%
Draw or Torlak
54%

Winning margin

BASK wins by 2+
23%
Torlak wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

BASK 1+ goals
79%
BASK 2+ goals
46%
BASK 3+ goals
21%
Torlak 1+ goals
70%
Torlak 2+ goals
33%
Torlak 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

BASK (draw refunded)
61%
Torlak (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BASK at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.18 · 90 matches

Torlak away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BASK attack 1.59 + Torlak defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Torlak attack 1.21 + BASK defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

BASK scores more
46%
level
25%
Torlak scores more
29%

BASK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "BASK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

BASK 2 – 1 Torlak

BASK beat Torlak 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on September 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Careva Ćuprija in Beograd.