Torino 2–1 Hellas Verona: Result & Stats | Serie A

Torino

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hellas Verona

C. Casadei 50'

G. Simeone 6'

K. Bowie 38'

4/11/2026

Serie A · Round 32Stadio Olimpico di Torino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Torino42%

×Draw26%

Hellas Verona33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorinoExpected goals in this matchHellas Verona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.25

Torino

1.45

Hellas Verona

1.25

Torino creates 16% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 20 away

1.26

creates per match

1.04

1.47

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Torino

1.26

Hellas Verona

1.04

allows per match

Torino

1.47

Hellas Verona

1.64

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Torino-0.09on par

Hellas Verona-0.34scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torino ↓

Hellas Verona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Torino or draw

67%

Torino or Hellas Verona

74%

Draw or Hellas Verona

58%

Winning margin

Torino wins by 2+

20%

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Torino 1+ goals

77%

Torino 2+ goals

42%

Torino 3+ goals

18%

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

71%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

36%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Torino (draw refunded)

56%

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torino at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.47 · 29 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.64 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torino attack 1.26 + Hellas Verona defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.45

Hellas Verona attack 1.04 + Torino defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Torino scores more

42%

level

26%

Hellas Verona scores more

33%

Torino at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Torino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

G. Simeone↳ M. Pedersen

25'

26'

38'

46'

50'

C. Casadei↳ R. Obrador

58'

Che AdamsGoal cancelled

60'

N. Valentini← A. Edmundsson

60'

G. Orban← A. Harroui

65'

Daniel Oyegoke

67'

L. Marianucci← S. Coco

68'

D. Bradaric← A. Bernede

75'

S. Kulenovic← C. Adams

75'

M. Prati← G. Gineitis

81'

D. Mosquera← M. Frese

81'

A. Sarr← R. Belghali

84'

C. Biraghi← R. Obrador

84'

G. Maripan← E. Ebosse

90+5'

Nicolás Valentini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TorinoHellas

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots18

1.31Expected Goals (xG)1.48

3Corners6

13Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots18

2On Target4

7Off Target6

2Blocked8

5Inside Box10

6Outside Box8

Passing

46%Possession54%

358Total Passes396

265Accurate Passes307

74%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

-0.70Goals Prevented-0.70

Discipline

13Fouls17

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Torino vs Hellas Verona

Torino beat Hellas Verona 2-1 in Serie A on April 11, 2026.

Goals: G. Simeone (6'), K. Bowie (38'), C. Casadei (50').

Hellas Verona controlled possession (54%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico di Torino in Turin.

Torino vs Hellas Verona — Serie A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Torino vs Hellas Verona