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Torino vs Hellas Verona — Serie A 2018

Torino
Torino
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
A. Miranchuk 64'
M. Đurić 45'
1/4/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 16Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Torino42%
×Draw26%
Hellas Verona33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torino
1.45
Hellas Verona
1.25

Torino creates 16% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 20 away

creates per match

Torino
1.26
Hellas Verona
1.04

allows per match

Torino
1.47
Hellas Verona
1.64

finishing

Torino-0.09on par
Hellas Verona-0.34scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torino ↓

Hellas Verona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Torino or draw
67%
Torino or Hellas Verona
74%
Draw or Hellas Verona
58%

Winning margin

Torino wins by 2+
20%
Hellas Verona wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Torino 1+ goals
77%
Torino 2+ goals
42%
Torino 3+ goals
18%
Hellas Verona 1+ goals
71%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
36%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Torino (draw refunded)
56%
Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torino at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.47 · 29 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.64 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torino attack 1.26 + Hellas Verona defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.45

Hellas Verona attack 1.04 + Torino defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Torino scores more
42%
level
26%
Hellas Verona scores more
33%

Torino at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Torino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
M. ĐurićHellas VeronaHellas Verona · F
7.6

Match Events

45'
M. Đurić↳ D. Lazović
64'
A. Miranchuk↳ P. Schuurs
65'
A. Sanabria← N. Radonjić
72'
S. Verdi← I. Sulemana
72'
I. Ilić← Y. Kallon
81'
F. Terracciano← D. Lazović
86'
A. Hrustić← F. Depaoli
89'
Perr Schuurs
89'
K. Linetty← S. Ricci
90+5'
Paweł Dawidowicz

Possession

67%Torino

Shots

9Torino

Pass accuracy

56%Torino

Statistics

TorinoHellas
Overview
67%Possession33%
9Total Shots10
6Corners3
7Fouls17
Shots
9Total Shots10
3On Target2
2Off Target6
4Blocked2
5Inside Box7
4Outside Box3
Passing
67%Possession33%
582Total Passes290
463Accurate Passes180
80%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls17
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Serie A: Torino 1–1 Hellas Verona

Torino and Hellas Verona drew 1-1 in Serie A on January 4, 2023.

Goals: M. Đurić (45'), A. Miranchuk (64').

Torino controlled possession (67%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in Torino.