Torino 1–1 Hellas Verona: Result & Stats | Serie A

Torino

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hellas Verona

S. Zaza 67'

F. Borini 56' (pen)

7/22/2020

Serie A · Round 35Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Torino41%

×Draw26%

Hellas Verona33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorinoExpected goals in this matchHellas Verona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.25

Torino

1.43

Hellas Verona

1.25

Torino creates 14% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 20 away

1.22

creates per match

1.04

1.46

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Torino

1.22

Hellas Verona

1.04

allows per match

Torino

1.46

Hellas Verona

1.64

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Torino+0.01on par

Hellas Verona-0.34scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torino ↓

Hellas Verona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Torino or draw

67%

Torino or Hellas Verona

74%

Draw or Hellas Verona

59%

Winning margin

Torino wins by 2+

20%

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Torino 1+ goals

76%

Torino 2+ goals

42%

Torino 3+ goals

17%

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

71%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

36%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Torino (draw refunded)

56%

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torino at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.46 · 31 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.64 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torino attack 1.22 + Hellas Verona defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.43

Hellas Verona attack 1.04 + Torino defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Torino scores more

41%

level

26%

Hellas Verona scores more

33%

Torino at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Torino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36

Gleison Bremer

Torino · D

7.8

Match Events

14'

L. De Silvestri← O. Aina

39'

A. Empereur

39'

Lyanco

51'

V. Verre← V. Eysseric

56'

N. N'Koulou

56'

F. BoriniPenalty

59'

S. Zaza

60'

S. Verdi

64'

E. Salcedo Mora← M. Zaccagni

66'

Lyanco← A. Berenguer

67'

S. Zaza↳ C. Ansaldi

79'

F. Borini← M. Stepinski

79'

D. Lazovic← F. Dimarco

89'

V. Eysseric

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TorinoHellas

Overview

43%Possession57%

9Total Shots10

5Corners4

18Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots10

3On Target5

3Off Target2

3Blocked3

8Inside Box4

1Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

368Total Passes492

261Accurate Passes378

71%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls16

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1