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Torgelower SV Greif vs Tasmania Berlin — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Torgelower SV Greif
Torgelower SV Greif
CANC
12:00
Tasmania Berlin
Tasmania Berlin
12/13/2020Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 15Gießerei-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Torgelower SV Greif50%
×Draw22%
Tasmania Berlin28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torgelower SV Greif
1.93
Tasmania Berlin
1.41

Torgelower SV Greif creates 37% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 66 away

creates per match

Torgelower SV Greif
2.21
Tasmania Berlin
1.70

allows per match

Torgelower SV Greif
1.11
Tasmania Berlin
1.65

finishing

Torgelower SV Greif+0.00on par
Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torgelower SV Greif ↓

Tasmania Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Torgelower SV Greif or draw
72%
Torgelower SV Greif or Tasmania Berlin
78%
Draw or Tasmania Berlin
50%

Winning margin

Torgelower SV Greif wins by 2+
28%
Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Torgelower SV Greif 1+ goals
85%
Torgelower SV Greif 2+ goals
57%
Torgelower SV Greif 3+ goals
30%
Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals
76%
Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals
41%
Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Torgelower SV Greif (draw refunded)
64%
Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torgelower SV Greif at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Tasmania Berlin away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torgelower SV Greif attack 2.21 + Tasmania Berlin defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.93

Tasmania Berlin attack 1.70 + Torgelower SV Greif defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Torgelower SV Greif scores more
50%
level
22%
Tasmania Berlin scores more
28%

Torgelower SV Greif at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Torgelower SV Greif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torgelower SV Greif face Tasmania Berlin (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord returns with Torgelower SV Greif hosting Tasmania Berlin. Match starts December 13, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Torgelower SV Greif host Tasmania Berlin at Gießerei-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.