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Tasmania Berlin vs Torgelower SV Greif — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Tasmania Berlin
Tasmania Berlin
CANC
12:00
Torgelower SV Greif
Torgelower SV Greif
5/30/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 32Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tasmania Berlin39%
×Draw23%
Torgelower SV Greif38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tasmania Berlin
1.62
Torgelower SV Greif
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 18 away

creates per match

Tasmania Berlin
2.12
Torgelower SV Greif
1.89

allows per match

Tasmania Berlin
1.32
Torgelower SV Greif
1.11

finishing

Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par
Torgelower SV Greif+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tasmania Berlin ↓

Torgelower SV Greif →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Tasmania Berlin or draw
62%
Tasmania Berlin or Torgelower SV Greif
77%
Draw or Torgelower SV Greif
61%

Winning margin

Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+
19%
Torgelower SV Greif wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals
80%
Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals
48%
Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals
22%
Torgelower SV Greif 1+ goals
80%
Torgelower SV Greif 2+ goals
47%
Torgelower SV Greif 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)
51%
Torgelower SV Greif (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tasmania Berlin at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

Torgelower SV Greif away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tasmania Berlin attack 2.12 + Torgelower SV Greif defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.62

Torgelower SV Greif attack 1.89 + Tasmania Berlin defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tasmania Berlin scores more
39%
level
23%
Torgelower SV Greif scores more
38%

Tasmania Berlin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tasmania Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tasmania Berlin vs Torgelower SV Greif — Match Preview

Tasmania Berlin face Torgelower SV Greif on May 30, 2021 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Tasmania Berlin host Torgelower SV Greif at Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportpark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.