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Torgelower SV Greif vs MSV Neuruppin — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Torgelower SV Greif
Torgelower SV Greif
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
MSV Neuruppin
MSV Neuruppin
2/5/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 15Gießerei-Arena Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Torgelower SV Greif62%
×Draw20%
MSV Neuruppin18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torgelower SV Greif
2.20
MSV Neuruppin
1.10

Torgelower SV Greif creates 100% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 33 away

creates per match

Torgelower SV Greif
2.21
MSV Neuruppin
1.09

allows per match

Torgelower SV Greif
1.11
MSV Neuruppin
2.18

finishing

Torgelower SV Greif+0.00on par
MSV Neuruppin+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torgelower SV Greif ↓

MSV Neuruppin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Torgelower SV Greif or draw
82%
Torgelower SV Greif or MSV Neuruppin
80%
Draw or MSV Neuruppin
38%

Winning margin

Torgelower SV Greif wins by 2+
39%
MSV Neuruppin wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Torgelower SV Greif 1+ goals
89%
Torgelower SV Greif 2+ goals
64%
Torgelower SV Greif 3+ goals
37%
MSV Neuruppin 1+ goals
67%
MSV Neuruppin 2+ goals
30%
MSV Neuruppin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Torgelower SV Greif (draw refunded)
77%
MSV Neuruppin (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torgelower SV Greif at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

MSV Neuruppin away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.18 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torgelower SV Greif attack 2.21 + MSV Neuruppin defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.20

MSV Neuruppin attack 1.09 + Torgelower SV Greif defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Torgelower SV Greif scores more
62%
level
20%
MSV Neuruppin scores more
18%

Torgelower SV Greif at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Torgelower SV Greif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Torgelower SV Greif 3–1 MSV Neuruppin

Torgelower SV Greif beat MSV Neuruppin 3-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on February 5, 2022.

The match was played at Gießerei-Arena Kunstrasen in Torgelow.