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MSV Neuruppin vs Torgelower SV Greif — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

MSV Neuruppin
MSV Neuruppin
CANC
12:00
Torgelower SV Greif
Torgelower SV Greif
5/22/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 34Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

MSV Neuruppin28%
×Draw24%
Torgelower SV Greif48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MSV Neuruppin
1.21
Torgelower SV Greif
1.68

Torgelower SV Greif creates 39% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 18 away

creates per match

MSV Neuruppin
1.31
Torgelower SV Greif
1.89

allows per match

MSV Neuruppin
1.47
Torgelower SV Greif
1.11

finishing

MSV Neuruppin+0.00on par
Torgelower SV Greif+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Neuruppin ↓

Torgelower SV Greif →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

MSV Neuruppin or draw
52%
MSV Neuruppin or Torgelower SV Greif
76%
Draw or Torgelower SV Greif
72%

Winning margin

MSV Neuruppin wins by 2+
11%
Torgelower SV Greif wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

MSV Neuruppin 1+ goals
70%
MSV Neuruppin 2+ goals
34%
MSV Neuruppin 3+ goals
12%
Torgelower SV Greif 1+ goals
81%
Torgelower SV Greif 2+ goals
50%
Torgelower SV Greif 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

MSV Neuruppin (draw refunded)
36%
Torgelower SV Greif (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Neuruppin at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.47 · 32 matches

Torgelower SV Greif away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Neuruppin attack 1.31 + Torgelower SV Greif defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Torgelower SV Greif attack 1.89 + MSV Neuruppin defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

MSV Neuruppin scores more
28%
level
24%
Torgelower SV Greif scores more
48%

Torgelower SV Greif at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Torgelower SV Greif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MSV Neuruppin face Torgelower SV Greif (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord returns with MSV Neuruppin hosting Torgelower SV Greif. Match starts May 22, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

MSV Neuruppin host Torgelower SV Greif at Volksparkstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.