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Torgelower SV Greif vs Mecklenburg Schwerin — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Torgelower SV Greif
Torgelower SV Greif
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mecklenburg Schwerin
Mecklenburg Schwerin
6/4/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 31Gießerei-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Torgelower SV Greif61%
×Draw19%
Mecklenburg Schwerin20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torgelower SV Greif
2.31
Mecklenburg Schwerin
1.25

Torgelower SV Greif creates 85% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 33 away

creates per match

Torgelower SV Greif
2.21
Mecklenburg Schwerin
1.39

allows per match

Torgelower SV Greif
1.11
Mecklenburg Schwerin
2.42

finishing

Torgelower SV Greif+0.00on par
Mecklenburg Schwerin+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torgelower SV Greif ↓

Mecklenburg Schwerin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Torgelower SV Greif or draw
80%
Torgelower SV Greif or Mecklenburg Schwerin
81%
Draw or Mecklenburg Schwerin
39%

Winning margin

Torgelower SV Greif wins by 2+
39%
Mecklenburg Schwerin wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Torgelower SV Greif 1+ goals
90%
Torgelower SV Greif 2+ goals
67%
Torgelower SV Greif 3+ goals
40%
Mecklenburg Schwerin 1+ goals
71%
Mecklenburg Schwerin 2+ goals
36%
Mecklenburg Schwerin 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Torgelower SV Greif (draw refunded)
75%
Mecklenburg Schwerin (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torgelower SV Greif at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Mecklenburg Schwerin away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torgelower SV Greif attack 2.21 + Mecklenburg Schwerin defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.31

Mecklenburg Schwerin attack 1.39 + Torgelower SV Greif defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Torgelower SV Greif scores more
61%
level
19%
Mecklenburg Schwerin scores more
20%

Torgelower SV Greif at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Torgelower SV Greif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Torgelower SV Greif 3–0 Mecklenburg Schwerin

Torgelower SV Greif beat Mecklenburg Schwerin 3-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Gießerei-Arena in Torgelow.