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Mecklenburg Schwerin vs Torgelower SV Greif — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Mecklenburg Schwerin
Mecklenburg Schwerin
FT
0 – 4
Torgelower SV Greif
Torgelower SV Greif
10/30/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 12Sportpark Lankow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Mecklenburg Schwerin21%
×Draw21%
Torgelower SV Greif57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mecklenburg Schwerin
1.16
Torgelower SV Greif
2.04

Torgelower SV Greif creates 76% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 18 away

creates per match

Mecklenburg Schwerin
1.21
Torgelower SV Greif
1.89

allows per match

Mecklenburg Schwerin
2.18
Torgelower SV Greif
1.11

finishing

Mecklenburg Schwerin+0.00on par
Torgelower SV Greif+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mecklenburg Schwerin ↓

Torgelower SV Greif →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Mecklenburg Schwerin or draw
43%
Mecklenburg Schwerin or Torgelower SV Greif
79%
Draw or Torgelower SV Greif
79%

Winning margin

Mecklenburg Schwerin wins by 2+
8%
Torgelower SV Greif wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Mecklenburg Schwerin 1+ goals
69%
Mecklenburg Schwerin 2+ goals
32%
Mecklenburg Schwerin 3+ goals
11%
Torgelower SV Greif 1+ goals
87%
Torgelower SV Greif 2+ goals
60%
Torgelower SV Greif 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Mecklenburg Schwerin (draw refunded)
27%
Torgelower SV Greif (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mecklenburg Schwerin at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.18 · 33 matches

Torgelower SV Greif away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mecklenburg Schwerin attack 1.21 + Torgelower SV Greif defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Torgelower SV Greif attack 1.89 + Mecklenburg Schwerin defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mecklenburg Schwerin scores more
21%
level
21%
Torgelower SV Greif scores more
57%

Torgelower SV Greif at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Torgelower SV Greif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mecklenburg Schwerin vs Torgelower SV Greif

Torgelower SV Greif beat Mecklenburg Schwerin 4-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Sportpark Lankow in Schwerin.