Torgelower SV Greif 0–0 Ludwigsfelde

Torgelower SV Greif

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ludwigsfelde

4/9/2022

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 23Gießerei-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Torgelower SV Greif59%

×Draw22%

Ludwigsfelde19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torgelower SV GreifExpected goals in this matchLudwigsfelde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

0.96

Torgelower SV Greif

1.91

Ludwigsfelde

0.96

Torgelower SV Greif creates 99% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

2.21

creates per match

0.80

1.11

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Torgelower SV Greif

2.21

Ludwigsfelde

0.80

allows per match

Torgelower SV Greif

1.11

Ludwigsfelde

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torgelower SV Greif+0.00on par

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torgelower SV Greif ↓

Ludwigsfelde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Torgelower SV Greif or draw

81%

Torgelower SV Greif or Ludwigsfelde

78%

Draw or Ludwigsfelde

41%

Winning margin

Torgelower SV Greif wins by 2+

35%

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Torgelower SV Greif 1+ goals

85%

Torgelower SV Greif 2+ goals

57%

Torgelower SV Greif 3+ goals

30%

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals

62%

Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals

25%

Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Torgelower SV Greif (draw refunded)

76%

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torgelower SV Greif at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Ludwigsfelde away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torgelower SV Greif attack 2.21 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.91

Ludwigsfelde attack 0.80 + Torgelower SV Greif defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Torgelower SV Greif scores more

59%

level

22%

Ludwigsfelde scores more

19%

Torgelower SV Greif at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Torgelower SV Greif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff