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Ludwigsfelde vs Torgelower SV Greif — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Ludwigsfelde
Ludwigsfelde
CANC
12:00
Torgelower SV Greif
Torgelower SV Greif
8/21/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 4Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ludwigsfelde26%
×Draw24%
Torgelower SV Greif50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludwigsfelde
1.12
Torgelower SV Greif
1.65

Torgelower SV Greif creates 47% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ludwigsfelde
1.13
Torgelower SV Greif
1.89

allows per match

Ludwigsfelde
1.40
Torgelower SV Greif
1.11

finishing

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par
Torgelower SV Greif+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludwigsfelde ↓

Torgelower SV Greif →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ludwigsfelde or draw
50%
Ludwigsfelde or Torgelower SV Greif
76%
Draw or Torgelower SV Greif
74%

Winning margin

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+
10%
Torgelower SV Greif wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals
67%
Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals
31%
Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals
10%
Torgelower SV Greif 1+ goals
81%
Torgelower SV Greif 2+ goals
49%
Torgelower SV Greif 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)
34%
Torgelower SV Greif (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludwigsfelde at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Torgelower SV Greif away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludwigsfelde attack 1.13 + Torgelower SV Greif defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Torgelower SV Greif attack 1.89 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ludwigsfelde scores more
26%
level
24%
Torgelower SV Greif scores more
50%

Torgelower SV Greif at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Torgelower SV Greif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ludwigsfelde host Torgelower SV Greif

August 21, 2021: Ludwigsfelde take on Torgelower SV Greif in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ludwigsfelde host Torgelower SV Greif at Waldstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.