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Torgelower SV Greif vs Hansa Rostock II — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Torgelower SV Greif
Torgelower SV Greif
FT
4 – 4
Hansa Rostock II
Hansa Rostock II
9/19/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 7Gießerei-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Torgelower SV Greif42%
×Draw22%
Hansa Rostock II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torgelower SV Greif
1.92
Hansa Rostock II
1.75

Torgelower SV Greif creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 66 away

creates per match

Torgelower SV Greif
2.21
Hansa Rostock II
2.39

allows per match

Torgelower SV Greif
1.11
Hansa Rostock II
1.62

finishing

Torgelower SV Greif+0.00on par
Hansa Rostock II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torgelower SV Greif ↓

Hansa Rostock II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Torgelower SV Greif or draw
64%
Torgelower SV Greif or Hansa Rostock II
78%
Draw or Hansa Rostock II
58%

Winning margin

Torgelower SV Greif wins by 2+
23%
Hansa Rostock II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Torgelower SV Greif 1+ goals
85%
Torgelower SV Greif 2+ goals
57%
Torgelower SV Greif 3+ goals
30%
Hansa Rostock II 1+ goals
83%
Hansa Rostock II 2+ goals
52%
Hansa Rostock II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Torgelower SV Greif (draw refunded)
54%
Hansa Rostock II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torgelower SV Greif at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Hansa Rostock II away — creates 2.39, concedes 1.62 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torgelower SV Greif attack 2.21 + Hansa Rostock II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.92

Hansa Rostock II attack 2.39 + Torgelower SV Greif defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Torgelower SV Greif scores more
42%
level
22%
Hansa Rostock II scores more
36%

Torgelower SV Greif at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Torgelower SV Greif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torgelower SV Greif vs Hansa Rostock II

Torgelower SV Greif and Hansa Rostock II drew 4-4 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Gießerei-Arena in Torgelow.