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Hansa Rostock II vs Torgelower SV Greif — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Hansa Rostock II
Hansa Rostock II
FT
0 – 0
Torgelower SV Greif
Torgelower SV Greif
9/5/2020Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 4Volksstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hansa Rostock II47%
×Draw22%
Torgelower SV Greif30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hansa Rostock II
1.94
Torgelower SV Greif
1.52

Hansa Rostock II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 18 away

creates per match

Hansa Rostock II
2.76
Torgelower SV Greif
1.89

allows per match

Hansa Rostock II
1.16
Torgelower SV Greif
1.11

finishing

Hansa Rostock II+0.00on par
Torgelower SV Greif+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock II ↓

Torgelower SV Greif →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock II or draw
70%
Hansa Rostock II or Torgelower SV Greif
78%
Draw or Torgelower SV Greif
53%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock II wins by 2+
27%
Torgelower SV Greif wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock II 1+ goals
86%
Hansa Rostock II 2+ goals
58%
Hansa Rostock II 3+ goals
30%
Torgelower SV Greif 1+ goals
78%
Torgelower SV Greif 2+ goals
45%
Torgelower SV Greif 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock II (draw refunded)
61%
Torgelower SV Greif (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock II at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Torgelower SV Greif away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock II attack 2.76 + Torgelower SV Greif defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.94

Torgelower SV Greif attack 1.89 + Hansa Rostock II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hansa Rostock II scores more
47%
level
22%
Torgelower SV Greif scores more
30%

Hansa Rostock II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hansa Rostock II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hansa Rostock II vs Torgelower SV Greif

Hansa Rostock II and Torgelower SV Greif drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Volksstadion in Rostock.