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Torgelower SV Greif vs FC Lok Stendal — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Torgelower SV Greif
Torgelower SV Greif
CANC
12:00
FC Lok Stendal
FC Lok Stendal
2/21/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 20Gießerei-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Torgelower SV Greif73%
×Draw15%
FC Lok Stendal12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torgelower SV Greif
2.78
FC Lok Stendal
1.03

Torgelower SV Greif creates 170% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Torgelower SV Greif
2.21
FC Lok Stendal
0.95

allows per match

Torgelower SV Greif
1.11
FC Lok Stendal
3.35

finishing

Torgelower SV Greif+0.00on par
FC Lok Stendal+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torgelower SV Greif ↓

FC Lok Stendal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Torgelower SV Greif or draw
88%
Torgelower SV Greif or FC Lok Stendal
85%
Draw or FC Lok Stendal
27%

Winning margin

Torgelower SV Greif wins by 2+
52%
FC Lok Stendal wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Torgelower SV Greif 1+ goals
94%
Torgelower SV Greif 2+ goals
76%
Torgelower SV Greif 3+ goals
51%
FC Lok Stendal 1+ goals
64%
FC Lok Stendal 2+ goals
28%
FC Lok Stendal 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Torgelower SV Greif (draw refunded)
86%
FC Lok Stendal (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torgelower SV Greif at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

FC Lok Stendal away — creates 0.95, concedes 3.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torgelower SV Greif attack 2.21 + FC Lok Stendal defence 3.35 → ÷2 → 2.78

FC Lok Stendal attack 0.95 + Torgelower SV Greif defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Torgelower SV Greif scores more
73%
level
15%
FC Lok Stendal scores more
12%

Torgelower SV Greif at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Torgelower SV Greif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torgelower SV Greif face FC Lok Stendal (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord returns with Torgelower SV Greif hosting FC Lok Stendal. Match starts February 21, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Torgelower SV Greif host FC Lok Stendal at Gießerei-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.