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FC Lok Stendal vs Torgelower SV Greif — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

FC Lok Stendal
FC Lok Stendal
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Torgelower SV Greif
Torgelower SV Greif
5/15/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 28Stadion am Hölzchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

FC Lok Stendal15%
×Draw19%
Torgelower SV Greif66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Lok Stendal
0.98
Torgelower SV Greif
2.25

Torgelower SV Greif creates 130% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

creates per match

FC Lok Stendal
0.85
Torgelower SV Greif
1.89

allows per match

FC Lok Stendal
2.60
Torgelower SV Greif
1.11

finishing

FC Lok Stendal+0.00on par
Torgelower SV Greif+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lok Stendal ↓

Torgelower SV Greif →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FC Lok Stendal or draw
34%
FC Lok Stendal or Torgelower SV Greif
81%
Draw or Torgelower SV Greif
85%

Winning margin

FC Lok Stendal wins by 2+
5%
Torgelower SV Greif wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

FC Lok Stendal 1+ goals
62%
FC Lok Stendal 2+ goals
26%
FC Lok Stendal 3+ goals
8%
Torgelower SV Greif 1+ goals
89%
Torgelower SV Greif 2+ goals
65%
Torgelower SV Greif 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

FC Lok Stendal (draw refunded)
19%
Torgelower SV Greif (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lok Stendal at home — creates 0.85, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

Torgelower SV Greif away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lok Stendal attack 0.85 + Torgelower SV Greif defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.98

Torgelower SV Greif attack 1.89 + FC Lok Stendal defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

FC Lok Stendal scores more
15%
level
19%
Torgelower SV Greif scores more
66%

Torgelower SV Greif at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Torgelower SV Greif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: FC Lok Stendal 1–4 Torgelower SV Greif

Torgelower SV Greif beat FC Lok Stendal 4-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion am Hölzchen in Stendal.