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Torgelower SV Greif vs CFC Hertha — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Torgelower SV Greif
Torgelower SV Greif
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
CFC Hertha
CFC Hertha
6/18/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 33Gießerei-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Torgelower SV Greif54%
×Draw22%
CFC Hertha24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torgelower SV Greif
1.91
CFC Hertha
1.21

Torgelower SV Greif creates 58% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 44 away

creates per match

Torgelower SV Greif
2.21
CFC Hertha
1.30

allows per match

Torgelower SV Greif
1.11
CFC Hertha
1.61

finishing

Torgelower SV Greif+0.00on par
CFC Hertha+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torgelower SV Greif ↓

CFC Hertha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Torgelower SV Greif or draw
76%
Torgelower SV Greif or CFC Hertha
78%
Draw or CFC Hertha
46%

Winning margin

Torgelower SV Greif wins by 2+
31%
CFC Hertha wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Torgelower SV Greif 1+ goals
85%
Torgelower SV Greif 2+ goals
57%
Torgelower SV Greif 3+ goals
30%
CFC Hertha 1+ goals
70%
CFC Hertha 2+ goals
34%
CFC Hertha 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Torgelower SV Greif (draw refunded)
69%
CFC Hertha (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torgelower SV Greif at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

CFC Hertha away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torgelower SV Greif attack 2.21 + CFC Hertha defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.91

CFC Hertha attack 1.30 + Torgelower SV Greif defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Torgelower SV Greif scores more
54%
level
22%
CFC Hertha scores more
24%

Torgelower SV Greif at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Torgelower SV Greif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torgelower SV Greif vs CFC Hertha

CFC Hertha beat Torgelower SV Greif 3-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Gießerei-Arena in Torgelow.