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CFC Hertha vs Torgelower SV Greif — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

CFC Hertha
CFC Hertha
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Torgelower SV Greif
Torgelower SV Greif
1/30/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 14Sportplatz Brahestraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

CFC Hertha36%
×Draw24%
Torgelower SV Greif40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CFC Hertha
1.51
Torgelower SV Greif
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 18 away

creates per match

CFC Hertha
1.91
Torgelower SV Greif
1.89

allows per match

CFC Hertha
1.33
Torgelower SV Greif
1.11

finishing

CFC Hertha+0.00on par
Torgelower SV Greif+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFC Hertha ↓

Torgelower SV Greif →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

CFC Hertha or draw
60%
CFC Hertha or Torgelower SV Greif
76%
Draw or Torgelower SV Greif
64%

Winning margin

CFC Hertha wins by 2+
17%
Torgelower SV Greif wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

CFC Hertha 1+ goals
78%
CFC Hertha 2+ goals
44%
CFC Hertha 3+ goals
19%
Torgelower SV Greif 1+ goals
80%
Torgelower SV Greif 2+ goals
48%
Torgelower SV Greif 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

CFC Hertha (draw refunded)
47%
Torgelower SV Greif (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFC Hertha at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.33 · 46 matches

Torgelower SV Greif away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFC Hertha attack 1.91 + Torgelower SV Greif defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.51

Torgelower SV Greif attack 1.89 + CFC Hertha defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

CFC Hertha scores more
36%
level
24%
Torgelower SV Greif scores more
40%

Torgelower SV Greif at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Torgelower SV Greif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CFC Hertha vs Torgelower SV Greif

CFC Hertha beat Torgelower SV Greif 2-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on January 30, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Brahestraße in Berlin.