Torgelower SV Greif 5–0 BSC Süd 05: Result & Stats

Torgelower SV Greif

FT

5 – 0

BSC Süd 05

10/3/2020

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 7Gießerei-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Torgelower SV Greif63%

×Draw20%

BSC Süd 0516%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torgelower SV GreifExpected goals in this matchBSC Süd 05

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.94

Torgelower SV Greif

2.08

BSC Süd 05

0.94

Torgelower SV Greif creates 121% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

2.21

creates per match

0.76

1.11

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Torgelower SV Greif

2.21

BSC Süd 05

0.76

allows per match

Torgelower SV Greif

1.11

BSC Süd 05

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torgelower SV Greif+0.00on par

BSC Süd 05+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torgelower SV Greif ↓

BSC Süd 05 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Torgelower SV Greif or draw

84%

Torgelower SV Greif or BSC Süd 05

80%

Draw or BSC Süd 05

37%

Winning margin

Torgelower SV Greif wins by 2+

39%

BSC Süd 05 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Torgelower SV Greif 1+ goals

87%

Torgelower SV Greif 2+ goals

61%

Torgelower SV Greif 3+ goals

34%

BSC Süd 05 1+ goals

61%

BSC Süd 05 2+ goals

24%

BSC Süd 05 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Torgelower SV Greif (draw refunded)

80%

BSC Süd 05 (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torgelower SV Greif at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

BSC Süd 05 away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torgelower SV Greif attack 2.21 + BSC Süd 05 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.08

BSC Süd 05 attack 0.76 + Torgelower SV Greif defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Torgelower SV Greif scores more

63%

level

20%

BSC Süd 05 scores more

16%

Torgelower SV Greif at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Torgelower SV Greif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff