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BSC Süd 05 vs Torgelower SV Greif — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

BSC Süd 05
BSC Süd 05
CANC
13:00
Torgelower SV Greif
Torgelower SV Greif
3/21/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 24Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

BSC Süd 0519%
×Draw22%
Torgelower SV Greif59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSC Süd 05
0.98
Torgelower SV Greif
1.92

Torgelower SV Greif creates 96% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

creates per match

BSC Süd 05
0.85
Torgelower SV Greif
1.89

allows per match

BSC Süd 05
1.95
Torgelower SV Greif
1.11

finishing

BSC Süd 05+0.00on par
Torgelower SV Greif+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Süd 05 ↓

Torgelower SV Greif →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

BSC Süd 05 or draw
41%
BSC Süd 05 or Torgelower SV Greif
78%
Draw or Torgelower SV Greif
81%

Winning margin

BSC Süd 05 wins by 2+
6%
Torgelower SV Greif wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

BSC Süd 05 1+ goals
62%
BSC Süd 05 2+ goals
26%
BSC Süd 05 3+ goals
8%
Torgelower SV Greif 1+ goals
85%
Torgelower SV Greif 2+ goals
57%
Torgelower SV Greif 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

BSC Süd 05 (draw refunded)
24%
Torgelower SV Greif (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Süd 05 at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

Torgelower SV Greif away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Süd 05 attack 0.85 + Torgelower SV Greif defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.98

Torgelower SV Greif attack 1.89 + BSC Süd 05 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

BSC Süd 05 scores more
19%
level
22%
Torgelower SV Greif scores more
59%

Torgelower SV Greif at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Torgelower SV Greif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

BSC Süd 05 face Torgelower SV Greif (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord returns with BSC Süd 05 hosting Torgelower SV Greif. Match starts March 21, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

BSC Süd 05 host Torgelower SV Greif at Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportplatz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.