Topoli 1–2 Spartak Varna: Result & Stats

Topoli

FT

1 – 2

Spartak Varna

3/16/2019

Third League - Northeast · Round 19Stadion Topoli (Topoli)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Topoli15%

×Draw19%

Spartak Varna66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TopoliExpected goals in this matchSpartak Varna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

2.23

Topoli

0.95

Spartak Varna

2.23

Spartak Varna creates 135% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

1.21

creates per match

2.77

1.70

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Topoli

1.21

Spartak Varna

2.77

allows per match

Topoli

1.70

Spartak Varna

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Topoli+0.00on par

Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Topoli ↓

Spartak Varna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Topoli or draw

34%

Topoli or Spartak Varna

81%

Draw or Spartak Varna

85%

Winning margin

Topoli wins by 2+

5%

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Topoli 1+ goals

61%

Topoli 2+ goals

25%

Topoli 3+ goals

7%

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

89%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

65%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Topoli (draw refunded)

18%

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Topoli at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

Spartak Varna away — creates 2.77, concedes 0.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Topoli attack 1.21 + Spartak Varna defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.95

Spartak Varna attack 2.77 + Topoli defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Topoli scores more

15%

level

19%

Spartak Varna scores more

66%

Spartak Varna at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff