Spartak Varna 3–0 Topoli: Result & Stats

Spartak Varna

FT

3 – 0

Topoli

4/18/2021

Third League - Northeast · North-East - 23Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Spartak Varna84%

×Draw11%

Topoli5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak VarnaExpected goals in this matchTopoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

0.60

Spartak Varna

3.00

Topoli

0.60

Spartak Varna creates 400% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 33 away

3.92

creates per match

0.85

0.36

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Spartak Varna

3.92

Topoli

0.85

allows per match

Spartak Varna

0.36

Topoli

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Topoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

Topoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–18%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw

95%

Spartak Varna or Topoli

89%

Draw or Topoli

16%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

66%

Topoli wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

95%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

79%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

56%

Topoli 1+ goals

45%

Topoli 2+ goals

12%

Topoli 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

95%

Topoli (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 3.92, concedes 0.36 · 25 matches

Topoli away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.09 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 3.92 + Topoli defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 3.00

Topoli attack 0.85 + Spartak Varna defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Spartak Varna scores more

84%

level

11%

Topoli scores more

5%

Spartak Varna at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff