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Topoli vs Shumen 2007 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Topoli
Topoli
FT
2 – 1
Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
10/31/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 11Stadion Topoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Topoli28%
×Draw23%
Shumen 200749%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Topoli
1.37
Shumen 2007
1.88

Shumen 2007 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 36 away

creates per match

Topoli
1.21
Shumen 2007
2.06

allows per match

Topoli
1.70
Shumen 2007
1.53

finishing

Topoli+0.00on par
Shumen 2007+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Topoli ↓

Shumen 2007 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Topoli or draw
51%
Topoli or Shumen 2007
77%
Draw or Shumen 2007
72%

Winning margin

Topoli wins by 2+
12%
Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Topoli 1+ goals
75%
Topoli 2+ goals
40%
Topoli 3+ goals
16%
Shumen 2007 1+ goals
85%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
56%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Topoli (draw refunded)
36%
Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Topoli at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

Shumen 2007 away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Topoli attack 1.21 + Shumen 2007 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.37

Shumen 2007 attack 2.06 + Topoli defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Topoli scores more
28%
level
23%
Shumen 2007 scores more
49%

Shumen 2007 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Shumen 2007 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Topoli vs Shumen 2007

Topoli beat Shumen 2007 2-1 in Third League - Northeast on October 31, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Topoli in Topoli.