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Shumen 2007 vs Topoli — Third League - Northeast 2018

Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
CANC
00:00
Topoli
Topoli
4/17/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 24Stadion Panayot Volov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Shumen 200769%
×Draw18%
Topoli13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shumen 2007
2.28
Topoli
0.85

Shumen 2007 creates 168% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 33 away

creates per match

Shumen 2007
2.47
Topoli
0.85

allows per match

Shumen 2007
0.85
Topoli
2.09

finishing

Shumen 2007+0.00on par
Topoli+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shumen 2007 ↓

Topoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Shumen 2007 or draw
87%
Shumen 2007 or Topoli
82%
Draw or Topoli
31%

Winning margin

Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
46%
Topoli wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Shumen 2007 1+ goals
90%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
66%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
39%
Topoli 1+ goals
57%
Topoli 2+ goals
21%
Topoli 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
85%
Topoli (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shumen 2007 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Topoli away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.09 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shumen 2007 attack 2.47 + Topoli defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.28

Topoli attack 0.85 + Shumen 2007 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Shumen 2007 scores more
69%
level
18%
Topoli scores more
13%

Shumen 2007 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Shumen 2007 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shumen 2007 face Topoli (Third League - Northeast)

Third League - Northeast returns with Shumen 2007 hosting Topoli. Match starts April 17, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shumen 2007 host Topoli at Stadion Panayot Volov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.