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Topoli vs Septemvri Tervel — Third League - Northeast 2018

Topoli
Topoli
FT
0 – 4
Septemvri Tervel
Septemvri Tervel
4/25/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 24Stadion Topoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Topoli24%
×Draw25%
Septemvri Tervel52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Topoli
1.04
Septemvri Tervel
1.65

Septemvri Tervel creates 59% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 104 away

creates per match

Topoli
1.21
Septemvri Tervel
1.60

allows per match

Topoli
1.70
Septemvri Tervel
0.88

finishing

Topoli+0.00on par
Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Topoli ↓

Septemvri Tervel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Topoli or draw
48%
Topoli or Septemvri Tervel
75%
Draw or Septemvri Tervel
76%

Winning margin

Topoli wins by 2+
9%
Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Topoli 1+ goals
65%
Topoli 2+ goals
28%
Topoli 3+ goals
9%
Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals
81%
Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals
49%
Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Topoli (draw refunded)
32%
Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Topoli at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

Septemvri Tervel away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.88 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Topoli attack 1.21 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Septemvri Tervel attack 1.60 + Topoli defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Topoli scores more
24%
level
25%
Septemvri Tervel scores more
52%

Septemvri Tervel at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Septemvri Tervel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Topoli 0 – 4 Septemvri Tervel

Septemvri Tervel beat Topoli 4-0 in Third League - Northeast on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Topoli in Topoli.