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Septemvri Tervel vs Topoli — Third League - Northeast 2018

Septemvri Tervel
Septemvri Tervel
FT
2 – 0
Topoli
Topoli
10/10/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 9Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Septemvri Tervel75%
×Draw16%
Topoli9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Tervel
2.44
Topoli
0.74

Septemvri Tervel creates 230% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 33 away

creates per match

Septemvri Tervel
2.80
Topoli
0.85

allows per match

Septemvri Tervel
0.64
Topoli
2.09

finishing

Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par
Topoli+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Tervel ↓

Topoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Septemvri Tervel or draw
91%
Septemvri Tervel or Topoli
84%
Draw or Topoli
25%

Winning margin

Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+
52%
Topoli wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals
91%
Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals
70%
Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals
43%
Topoli 1+ goals
52%
Topoli 2+ goals
17%
Topoli 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)
89%
Topoli (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Tervel at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.64 · 104 matches

Topoli away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.09 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Tervel attack 2.80 + Topoli defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.44

Topoli attack 0.85 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Septemvri Tervel scores more
75%
level
16%
Topoli scores more
9%

Septemvri Tervel at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Septemvri Tervel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Septemvri Tervel vs Topoli

Septemvri Tervel beat Topoli 2-0 in Third League - Northeast on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Tervel.