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Topoli vs Ludogorets III — Third League - Northeast 2018

Topoli
Topoli
FT
2 – 7
Ludogorets III
Ludogorets III
5/16/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 28Stadion Topoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Topoli21%
×Draw22%
Ludogorets III57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Topoli
1.05
Ludogorets III
1.88

Ludogorets III creates 79% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 84 away

creates per match

Topoli
1.21
Ludogorets III
2.05

allows per match

Topoli
1.70
Ludogorets III
0.90

finishing

Topoli+0.00on par
Ludogorets III+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Topoli ↓

Ludogorets III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Topoli or draw
43%
Topoli or Ludogorets III
78%
Draw or Ludogorets III
79%

Winning margin

Topoli wins by 2+
8%
Ludogorets III wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Topoli 1+ goals
65%
Topoli 2+ goals
28%
Topoli 3+ goals
9%
Ludogorets III 1+ goals
85%
Ludogorets III 2+ goals
56%
Ludogorets III 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Topoli (draw refunded)
27%
Ludogorets III (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Topoli at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

Ludogorets III away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.90 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Topoli attack 1.21 + Ludogorets III defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.05

Ludogorets III attack 2.05 + Topoli defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Topoli scores more
21%
level
22%
Ludogorets III scores more
57%

Ludogorets III at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ludogorets III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Topoli 2–7 Ludogorets III

Ludogorets III beat Topoli 7-2 in Third League - Northeast on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Topoli in Topoli.