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Ludogorets III vs Topoli — Third League - Northeast 2018

Ludogorets III
Ludogorets III
FT
4 – 0
Topoli
Topoli
2/13/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 13Sporten tsentar Ludogorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Ludogorets III78%
×Draw14%
Topoli8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets III
2.73
Topoli
0.76

Ludogorets III creates 259% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 33 away

creates per match

Ludogorets III
3.38
Topoli
0.85

allows per match

Ludogorets III
0.67
Topoli
2.09

finishing

Ludogorets III+0.00on par
Topoli+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets III ↓

Topoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Ludogorets III or draw
92%
Ludogorets III or Topoli
86%
Draw or Topoli
22%

Winning margin

Ludogorets III wins by 2+
57%
Topoli wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Ludogorets III 1+ goals
93%
Ludogorets III 2+ goals
75%
Ludogorets III 3+ goals
50%
Topoli 1+ goals
53%
Topoli 2+ goals
18%
Topoli 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets III (draw refunded)
91%
Topoli (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets III at home — creates 3.38, concedes 0.67 · 84 matches

Topoli away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.09 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets III attack 3.38 + Topoli defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.73

Topoli attack 0.85 + Ludogorets III defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Ludogorets III scores more
78%
level
14%
Topoli scores more
8%

Ludogorets III at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Ludogorets III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ludogorets III vs Topoli

Ludogorets III beat Topoli 4-0 in Third League - Northeast on February 13, 2021.

The match was played at Sporten tsentar Ludogorets in Razgrad.