Topoli 1–1 Lokomotiv Ruse: Result & Stats

Topoli

FT

1 – 1

Lokomotiv Ruse

10/20/2018

Third League - Northeast · Round 9Stadion Topoli (Topoli)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Topoli53%

×Draw22%

Lokomotiv Ruse25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TopoliExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Ruse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.28

Topoli

1.96

Lokomotiv Ruse

1.28

Topoli creates 53% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 52 away

1.21

creates per match

0.87

1.70

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Topoli

1.21

Lokomotiv Ruse

0.87

allows per match

Topoli

1.70

Lokomotiv Ruse

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Topoli+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Topoli ↓

Lokomotiv Ruse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Topoli or draw

75%

Topoli or Lokomotiv Ruse

78%

Draw or Lokomotiv Ruse

47%

Winning margin

Topoli wins by 2+

31%

Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Topoli 1+ goals

86%

Topoli 2+ goals

58%

Topoli 3+ goals

31%

Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals

72%

Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals

37%

Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Topoli (draw refunded)

68%

Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Topoli at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

Lokomotiv Ruse away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Topoli attack 1.21 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.96

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.87 + Topoli defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Topoli scores more

53%

level

22%

Lokomotiv Ruse scores more

25%

Topoli at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Topoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff