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Lokomotiv Ruse vs Topoli — Third League - Northeast 2018

Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
FT
0 – 1
Topoli
Topoli
4/7/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 22Stadion Dunav (Ruse (Rousse))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Lokomotiv Ruse38%
×Draw25%
Topoli38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Ruse
1.48
Topoli
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 33 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
0.88
Topoli
0.85

allows per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
2.10
Topoli
2.09

finishing

Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par
Topoli+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Ruse ↓

Topoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Ruse or draw
62%
Lokomotiv Ruse or Topoli
75%
Draw or Topoli
62%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
18%
Topoli wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
77%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
43%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
19%
Topoli 1+ goals
77%
Topoli 2+ goals
43%
Topoli 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
50%
Topoli (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Ruse at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

Topoli away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.09 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.88 + Topoli defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.48

Topoli attack 0.85 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
38%
level
25%
Topoli scores more
38%

Lokomotiv Ruse at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lokomotiv Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Ruse vs Topoli

Topoli beat Lokomotiv Ruse 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on April 7, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Dunav (Ruse (Rousse)).