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Topoli vs Kaliakra 1923 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Topoli
Topoli
FT
1 – 0
Kaliakra 1923
Kaliakra 1923
3/2/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 17Stadion Topoli (Topoli)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Topoli46%
×Draw25%
Kaliakra 192329%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Topoli
1.56
Kaliakra 1923
1.19

Topoli creates 31% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 12 away

creates per match

Topoli
1.21
Kaliakra 1923
0.67

allows per match

Topoli
1.70
Kaliakra 1923
1.92

finishing

Topoli+0.00on par
Kaliakra 1923+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Topoli ↓

Kaliakra 1923 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Topoli or draw
71%
Topoli or Kaliakra 1923
75%
Draw or Kaliakra 1923
54%

Winning margin

Topoli wins by 2+
23%
Kaliakra 1923 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Topoli 1+ goals
79%
Topoli 2+ goals
46%
Topoli 3+ goals
21%
Kaliakra 1923 1+ goals
70%
Kaliakra 1923 2+ goals
33%
Kaliakra 1923 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Topoli (draw refunded)
61%
Kaliakra 1923 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Topoli at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

Kaliakra 1923 away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Topoli attack 1.21 + Kaliakra 1923 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.56

Kaliakra 1923 attack 0.67 + Topoli defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Topoli scores more
46%
level
25%
Kaliakra 1923 scores more
29%

Topoli at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Topoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Topoli 1–0 Kaliakra 1923

Topoli beat Kaliakra 1923 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on March 2, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Topoli (Topoli).