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Kaliakra 1923 vs Topoli — Third League - Northeast 2018

Kaliakra 1923
Kaliakra 1923
FT
2 – 2
Topoli
Topoli
9/15/2018Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 4Gradski stadion (Kavarna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kaliakra 192354%
×Draw22%
Topoli25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaliakra 1923
1.97
Topoli
1.27

Kaliakra 1923 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Kaliakra 1923
1.85
Topoli
0.85

allows per match

Kaliakra 1923
1.69
Topoli
2.09

finishing

Kaliakra 1923+0.00on par
Topoli+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaliakra 1923 ↓

Topoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kaliakra 1923 or draw
75%
Kaliakra 1923 or Topoli
78%
Draw or Topoli
46%

Winning margin

Kaliakra 1923 wins by 2+
31%
Topoli wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kaliakra 1923 1+ goals
86%
Kaliakra 1923 2+ goals
58%
Kaliakra 1923 3+ goals
31%
Topoli 1+ goals
72%
Topoli 2+ goals
36%
Topoli 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kaliakra 1923 (draw refunded)
69%
Topoli (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaliakra 1923 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Topoli away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.09 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaliakra 1923 attack 1.85 + Topoli defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.97

Topoli attack 0.85 + Kaliakra 1923 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kaliakra 1923 scores more
54%
level
22%
Topoli scores more
25%

Kaliakra 1923 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kaliakra 1923 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Kaliakra 1923 2–2 Topoli

Kaliakra 1923 and Topoli drew 2-2 in Third League - Northeast on September 15, 2018.

The match was played at Gradski stadion (Kavarna).