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Topoli vs Chernolomets 1919 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Topoli
Topoli
FT
1 – 4
Chernolomets 1919
Chernolomets 1919
5/5/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 26Stadion Topoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Topoli28%
×Draw24%
Chernolomets 191948%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Topoli
1.23
Chernolomets 1919
1.67

Chernolomets 1919 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 91 away

creates per match

Topoli
1.21
Chernolomets 1919
1.63

allows per match

Topoli
1.70
Chernolomets 1919
1.24

finishing

Topoli+0.00on par
Chernolomets 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Topoli ↓

Chernolomets 1919 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Topoli or draw
52%
Topoli or Chernolomets 1919
76%
Draw or Chernolomets 1919
72%

Winning margin

Topoli wins by 2+
12%
Chernolomets 1919 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Topoli 1+ goals
71%
Topoli 2+ goals
35%
Topoli 3+ goals
13%
Chernolomets 1919 1+ goals
81%
Chernolomets 1919 2+ goals
50%
Chernolomets 1919 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Topoli (draw refunded)
37%
Chernolomets 1919 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Topoli at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

Chernolomets 1919 away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Topoli attack 1.21 + Chernolomets 1919 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Chernolomets 1919 attack 1.63 + Topoli defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Topoli scores more
28%
level
24%
Chernolomets 1919 scores more
48%

Chernolomets 1919 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chernolomets 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Topoli 1 – 4 Chernolomets 1919

Chernolomets 1919 beat Topoli 4-1 in Third League - Northeast on May 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Topoli in Topoli.