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Chernolomets 1919 vs Topoli — Third League - Northeast 2018

Chernolomets 1919
Chernolomets 1919
FT
3 – 0
Topoli
Topoli
9/15/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 5Stadion Stamo Kostov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chernolomets 191973%
×Draw16%
Topoli11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernolomets 1919
2.50
Topoli
0.85

Chernolomets 1919 creates 194% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 33 away

creates per match

Chernolomets 1919
2.90
Topoli
0.85

allows per match

Chernolomets 1919
0.85
Topoli
2.09

finishing

Chernolomets 1919+0.00on par
Topoli+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernolomets 1919 ↓

Topoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Chernolomets 1919 or draw
89%
Chernolomets 1919 or Topoli
84%
Draw or Topoli
27%

Winning margin

Chernolomets 1919 wins by 2+
51%
Topoli wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Chernolomets 1919 1+ goals
92%
Chernolomets 1919 2+ goals
71%
Chernolomets 1919 3+ goals
45%
Topoli 1+ goals
57%
Topoli 2+ goals
21%
Topoli 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chernolomets 1919 (draw refunded)
87%
Topoli (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernolomets 1919 at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.85 · 92 matches

Topoli away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.09 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernolomets 1919 attack 2.90 + Topoli defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.50

Topoli attack 0.85 + Chernolomets 1919 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Chernolomets 1919 scores more
73%
level
16%
Topoli scores more
11%

Chernolomets 1919 at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Chernolomets 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chernolomets 1919 vs Topoli

Chernolomets 1919 beat Topoli 3-0 in Third League - Northeast on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Stamo Kostov in Popovo.