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Toplicanin Prokuplje vs Timok Zaječar — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Toplicanin Prokuplje
Toplicanin Prokuplje
FT
0 – 0
Timok Zaječar
Timok Zaječar
5/1/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 32Stadion FK Toplicanin Prokuplje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje42%
×Draw25%
Timok Zaječar33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.51
Timok Zaječar
1.31

Toplicanin Prokuplje creates 15% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 64 away

creates per match

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.47
Timok Zaječar
1.06

allows per match

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.56
Timok Zaječar
1.55

finishing

Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par
Timok Zaječar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toplicanin Prokuplje ↓

Timok Zaječar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Toplicanin Prokuplje or draw
67%
Toplicanin Prokuplje or Timok Zaječar
75%
Draw or Timok Zaječar
58%

Winning margin

Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+
21%
Timok Zaječar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals
78%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals
44%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals
19%
Timok Zaječar 1+ goals
73%
Timok Zaječar 2+ goals
38%
Timok Zaječar 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)
56%
Timok Zaječar (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toplicanin Prokuplje at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.56 · 43 matches

Timok Zaječar away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.47 + Timok Zaječar defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.51

Timok Zaječar attack 1.06 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more
42%
level
25%
Timok Zaječar scores more
33%

Toplicanin Prokuplje at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Toplicanin Prokuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Toplicanin Prokuplje 0–0 Timok Zaječar

Toplicanin Prokuplje and Timok Zaječar drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - East on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Toplicanin Prokuplje in Prokuplje.