Timok Zaječar 0–3 Toplicanin Prokuplje

Timok Zaječar

FT

0 – 3

Toplicanin Prokuplje

5/20/2023

Srpska Liga - East · East - 27Stadion pod Kraljevicom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Timok Zaječar60%

×Draw21%

Toplicanin Prokuplje19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Timok ZaječarExpected goals in this matchToplicanin Prokuplje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.00

Timok Zaječar

1.98

Toplicanin Prokuplje

1.00

Timok Zaječar creates 98% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 42 away

1.95

creates per match

1.10

0.89

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Timok Zaječar

1.95

Toplicanin Prokuplje

1.10

allows per match

Timok Zaječar

0.89

Toplicanin Prokuplje

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Timok Zaječar+0.00on par

Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timok Zaječar ↓

Toplicanin Prokuplje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Timok Zaječar or draw

81%

Timok Zaječar or Toplicanin Prokuplje

79%

Draw or Toplicanin Prokuplje

40%

Winning margin

Timok Zaječar wins by 2+

36%

Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Timok Zaječar 1+ goals

86%

Timok Zaječar 2+ goals

59%

Timok Zaječar 3+ goals

31%

Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals

63%

Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals

26%

Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Timok Zaječar (draw refunded)

76%

Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timok Zaječar at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.89 · 63 matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timok Zaječar attack 1.95 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.98

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.10 + Timok Zaječar defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Timok Zaječar scores more

60%

level

21%

Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more

19%

Timok Zaječar at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Timok Zaječar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff