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Toplicanin Prokuplje vs Sinđelić — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Toplicanin Prokuplje
Toplicanin Prokuplje
FT
0 – 2
Sinđelić
Sinđelić
4/24/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 30Stadion FK Toplicanin Prokuplje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje40%
×Draw25%
Sinđelić36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.52
Sinđelić
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 72 away

creates per match

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.47
Sinđelić
1.32

allows per match

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.56
Sinđelić
1.58

finishing

Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par
Sinđelić+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toplicanin Prokuplje ↓

Sinđelić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Toplicanin Prokuplje or draw
64%
Toplicanin Prokuplje or Sinđelić
75%
Draw or Sinđelić
60%

Winning margin

Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+
19%
Sinđelić wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals
78%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals
45%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals
20%
Sinđelić 1+ goals
76%
Sinđelić 2+ goals
42%
Sinđelić 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)
52%
Sinđelić (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toplicanin Prokuplje at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.56 · 43 matches

Sinđelić away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.47 + Sinđelić defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sinđelić attack 1.32 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more
40%
level
25%
Sinđelić scores more
36%

Toplicanin Prokuplje at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Toplicanin Prokuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Toplicanin Prokuplje 0–2 Sinđelić

Sinđelić beat Toplicanin Prokuplje 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Toplicanin Prokuplje in Prokuplje.