Sinđelić 1–0 Toplicanin Prokuplje: Result & Stats

Sinđelić

FT

1 – 0

Toplicanin Prokuplje

8/24/2019

Srpska Liga - East · East - 2Stadion Mašinac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Sinđelić61%

×Draw22%

Toplicanin Prokuplje18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SinđelićExpected goals in this matchToplicanin Prokuplje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.96

Sinđelić

1.96

Toplicanin Prokuplje

0.96

Sinđelić creates 104% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 42 away

1.92

creates per match

1.10

0.82

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sinđelić

1.92

Toplicanin Prokuplje

1.10

allows per match

Sinđelić

0.82

Toplicanin Prokuplje

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sinđelić+0.00on par

Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sinđelić ↓

Toplicanin Prokuplje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sinđelić or draw

82%

Sinđelić or Toplicanin Prokuplje

78%

Draw or Toplicanin Prokuplje

39%

Winning margin

Sinđelić wins by 2+

36%

Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sinđelić 1+ goals

86%

Sinđelić 2+ goals

58%

Sinđelić 3+ goals

31%

Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals

62%

Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals

25%

Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sinđelić (draw refunded)

77%

Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sinđelić at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.82 · 71 matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sinđelić attack 1.92 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.10 + Sinđelić defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sinđelić scores more

61%

level

22%

Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more

18%

Sinđelić at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sinđelić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff