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Toplicanin Prokuplje vs Moravac Mrštane — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Toplicanin Prokuplje
Toplicanin Prokuplje
FT
5 – 0
Moravac Mrštane
Moravac Mrštane
3/20/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 23Stadion FK Toplicanin Prokuplje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje71%
×Draw16%
Moravac Mrštane14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toplicanin Prokuplje
2.82
Moravac Mrštane
1.18

Toplicanin Prokuplje creates 139% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 28 away

creates per match

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.47
Moravac Mrštane
0.79

allows per match

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.56
Moravac Mrštane
4.18

finishing

Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par
Moravac Mrštane+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toplicanin Prokuplje ↓

Moravac Mrštane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Toplicanin Prokuplje or draw
86%
Toplicanin Prokuplje or Moravac Mrštane
84%
Draw or Moravac Mrštane
29%

Winning margin

Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+
50%
Moravac Mrštane wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals
94%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals
77%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals
52%
Moravac Mrštane 1+ goals
69%
Moravac Mrštane 2+ goals
33%
Moravac Mrštane 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)
84%
Moravac Mrštane (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toplicanin Prokuplje at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.56 · 43 matches

Moravac Mrštane away — creates 0.79, concedes 4.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.47 + Moravac Mrštane defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 2.82

Moravac Mrštane attack 0.79 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more
71%
level
16%
Moravac Mrštane scores more
14%

Toplicanin Prokuplje at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Toplicanin Prokuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Toplicanin Prokuplje vs Moravac Mrštane

Toplicanin Prokuplje beat Moravac Mrštane 5-0 in Srpska Liga - East on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Toplicanin Prokuplje in Prokuplje.