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Moravac Mrštane vs Toplicanin Prokuplje — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Moravac Mrštane
Moravac Mrštane
FT
2 – 2
Toplicanin Prokuplje
Toplicanin Prokuplje
8/29/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 4SC Orion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Moravac Mrštane29%
×Draw21%
Toplicanin Prokuplje51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moravac Mrštane
1.59
Toplicanin Prokuplje
2.16

Toplicanin Prokuplje creates 36% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 42 away

creates per match

Moravac Mrštane
1.19
Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.10

allows per match

Moravac Mrštane
3.22
Toplicanin Prokuplje
2.00

finishing

Moravac Mrštane+0.00on par
Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moravac Mrštane ↓

Toplicanin Prokuplje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Moravac Mrštane or draw
49%
Moravac Mrštane or Toplicanin Prokuplje
79%
Draw or Toplicanin Prokuplje
71%

Winning margin

Moravac Mrštane wins by 2+
13%
Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Moravac Mrštane 1+ goals
80%
Moravac Mrštane 2+ goals
47%
Moravac Mrštane 3+ goals
21%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals
88%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals
63%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Moravac Mrštane (draw refunded)
36%
Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moravac Mrštane at home — creates 1.19, concedes 3.22 · 27 matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moravac Mrštane attack 1.19 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.10 + Moravac Mrštane defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Moravac Mrštane scores more
29%
level
21%
Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more
51%

Toplicanin Prokuplje at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Toplicanin Prokuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Moravac Mrštane 2–2 Toplicanin Prokuplje

Moravac Mrštane and Toplicanin Prokuplje drew 2-2 in Srpska Liga - East on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at SC Orion in Mrštane.