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Toplicanin Prokuplje vs Morava Vladičin Han — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Toplicanin Prokuplje
Toplicanin Prokuplje
FT
1 – 0
Morava Vladičin Han
Morava Vladičin Han
3/31/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 25Stadion FK Toplicanin Prokuplje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje57%
×Draw21%
Morava Vladičin Han22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toplicanin Prokuplje
2.13
Morava Vladičin Han
1.25

Toplicanin Prokuplje creates 70% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 19 away

creates per match

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.47
Morava Vladičin Han
0.95

allows per match

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.56
Morava Vladičin Han
2.79

finishing

Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par
Morava Vladičin Han+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toplicanin Prokuplje ↓

Morava Vladičin Han →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Toplicanin Prokuplje or draw
78%
Toplicanin Prokuplje or Morava Vladičin Han
79%
Draw or Morava Vladičin Han
43%

Winning margin

Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+
35%
Morava Vladičin Han wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals
88%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals
63%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals
35%
Morava Vladičin Han 1+ goals
71%
Morava Vladičin Han 2+ goals
36%
Morava Vladičin Han 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)
72%
Morava Vladičin Han (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toplicanin Prokuplje at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.56 · 43 matches

Morava Vladičin Han away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.47 + Morava Vladičin Han defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.13

Morava Vladičin Han attack 0.95 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more
57%
level
21%
Morava Vladičin Han scores more
22%

Toplicanin Prokuplje at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Toplicanin Prokuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Toplicanin Prokuplje vs Morava Vladičin Han

Toplicanin Prokuplje beat Morava Vladičin Han 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on March 31, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Toplicanin Prokuplje in Prokuplje.