Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Morava Vladičin Han vs Toplicanin Prokuplje — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Morava Vladičin Han
Morava Vladičin Han
FT
5 – 1
Toplicanin Prokuplje
Toplicanin Prokuplje
9/12/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 6Stadion FK Morava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Morava Vladičin Han50%
×Draw23%
Toplicanin Prokuplje27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morava Vladičin Han
1.84
Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.29

Morava Vladičin Han creates 43% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 42 away

creates per match

Morava Vladičin Han
1.68
Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.10

allows per match

Morava Vladičin Han
1.47
Toplicanin Prokuplje
2.00

finishing

Morava Vladičin Han+0.00on par
Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morava Vladičin Han ↓

Toplicanin Prokuplje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Morava Vladičin Han or draw
73%
Morava Vladičin Han or Toplicanin Prokuplje
77%
Draw or Toplicanin Prokuplje
50%

Winning margin

Morava Vladičin Han wins by 2+
28%
Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Morava Vladičin Han 1+ goals
84%
Morava Vladičin Han 2+ goals
55%
Morava Vladičin Han 3+ goals
28%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals
72%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals
37%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Morava Vladičin Han (draw refunded)
65%
Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morava Vladičin Han at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morava Vladičin Han attack 1.68 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.84

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.10 + Morava Vladičin Han defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Morava Vladičin Han scores more
50%
level
23%
Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more
27%

Morava Vladičin Han at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Morava Vladičin Han will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Morava Vladičin Han 5–1 Toplicanin Prokuplje

Morava Vladičin Han beat Toplicanin Prokuplje 5-1 in Srpska Liga - East on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Morava in Vladičin Han.