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Toplicanin Prokuplje vs Mladost Medoševac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Toplicanin Prokuplje
Toplicanin Prokuplje
FT
2 – 0
Mladost Medoševac
Mladost Medoševac
11/21/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 18Stadion FK Toplicanin Prokuplje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje50%
×Draw22%
Mladost Medoševac28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.92
Mladost Medoševac
1.39

Toplicanin Prokuplje creates 38% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 19 away

creates per match

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.47
Mladost Medoševac
1.21

allows per match

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.56
Mladost Medoševac
2.37

finishing

Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par
Mladost Medoševac+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toplicanin Prokuplje ↓

Mladost Medoševac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Toplicanin Prokuplje or draw
72%
Toplicanin Prokuplje or Mladost Medoševac
78%
Draw or Mladost Medoševac
50%

Winning margin

Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+
28%
Mladost Medoševac wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals
85%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals
57%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals
30%
Mladost Medoševac 1+ goals
75%
Mladost Medoševac 2+ goals
40%
Mladost Medoševac 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)
64%
Mladost Medoševac (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toplicanin Prokuplje at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.56 · 43 matches

Mladost Medoševac away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.47 + Mladost Medoševac defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.92

Mladost Medoševac attack 1.21 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more
50%
level
22%
Mladost Medoševac scores more
28%

Toplicanin Prokuplje at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Toplicanin Prokuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Toplicanin Prokuplje 2–0 Mladost Medoševac

Toplicanin Prokuplje beat Mladost Medoševac 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Toplicanin Prokuplje in Prokuplje.