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Mladost Medoševac vs Toplicanin Prokuplje — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Mladost Medoševac
Mladost Medoševac
FT
0 – 0
Toplicanin Prokuplje
Toplicanin Prokuplje
5/30/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 37Stadion FK Medoševac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Medoševac50%
×Draw24%
Toplicanin Prokuplje25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Medoševac
1.66
Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.10

Mladost Medoševac creates 51% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 42 away

creates per match

Mladost Medoševac
1.32
Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.10

allows per match

Mladost Medoševac
1.11
Toplicanin Prokuplje
2.00

finishing

Mladost Medoševac+0.00on par
Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Medoševac ↓

Toplicanin Prokuplje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mladost Medoševac or draw
75%
Mladost Medoševac or Toplicanin Prokuplje
76%
Draw or Toplicanin Prokuplje
50%

Winning margin

Mladost Medoševac wins by 2+
27%
Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mladost Medoševac 1+ goals
81%
Mladost Medoševac 2+ goals
49%
Mladost Medoševac 3+ goals
23%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals
67%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals
30%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mladost Medoševac (draw refunded)
67%
Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Medoševac at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Medoševac attack 1.32 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.10 + Mladost Medoševac defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mladost Medoševac scores more
50%
level
24%
Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more
25%

Mladost Medoševac at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mladost Medoševac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Mladost Medoševac 0–0 Toplicanin Prokuplje

Mladost Medoševac and Toplicanin Prokuplje drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - East on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Medoševac in Medoševac.