Toplicanin Prokuplje 3–2 Car Konstantin

Toplicanin Prokuplje

FT

3 – 2

Car Konstantin

4/1/2023

Srpska Liga - East · East - 20Stadion FK Toplicanin Prokuplje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje50%

×Draw22%

Car Konstantin28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Toplicanin ProkupljeExpected goals in this matchCar Konstantin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.38

Toplicanin Prokuplje

1.92

Car Konstantin

1.38

Toplicanin Prokuplje creates 39% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 42 away

1.47

creates per match

1.19

1.56

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Toplicanin Prokuplje

1.47

Car Konstantin

1.19

allows per match

Toplicanin Prokuplje

1.56

Car Konstantin

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par

Car Konstantin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toplicanin Prokuplje ↓

Car Konstantin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Toplicanin Prokuplje or draw

72%

Toplicanin Prokuplje or Car Konstantin

78%

Draw or Car Konstantin

50%

Winning margin

Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+

28%

Car Konstantin wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals

85%

Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals

57%

Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals

30%

Car Konstantin 1+ goals

75%

Car Konstantin 2+ goals

40%

Car Konstantin 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)

64%

Car Konstantin (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toplicanin Prokuplje at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.56 · 43 matches

Car Konstantin away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.47 + Car Konstantin defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.92

Car Konstantin attack 1.19 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more

50%

level

22%

Car Konstantin scores more

28%

Toplicanin Prokuplje at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Toplicanin Prokuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff