Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Car Konstantin vs Toplicanin Prokuplje — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Car Konstantin
Car Konstantin
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Toplicanin Prokuplje
Toplicanin Prokuplje
9/11/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 5Stadion na Bubnju

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Car Konstantin49%
×Draw23%
Toplicanin Prokuplje28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Car Konstantin
1.83
Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.35

Car Konstantin creates 36% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 42 away

creates per match

Car Konstantin
1.67
Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.10

allows per match

Car Konstantin
1.60
Toplicanin Prokuplje
2.00

finishing

Car Konstantin+0.00on par
Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Car Konstantin ↓

Toplicanin Prokuplje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Car Konstantin or draw
72%
Car Konstantin or Toplicanin Prokuplje
77%
Draw or Toplicanin Prokuplje
51%

Winning margin

Car Konstantin wins by 2+
27%
Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Car Konstantin 1+ goals
84%
Car Konstantin 2+ goals
54%
Car Konstantin 3+ goals
28%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals
74%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals
39%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Car Konstantin (draw refunded)
63%
Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Car Konstantin at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Car Konstantin attack 1.67 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.10 + Car Konstantin defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Car Konstantin scores more
49%
level
23%
Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more
28%

Car Konstantin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Car Konstantin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Car Konstantin 0–2 Toplicanin Prokuplje

Toplicanin Prokuplje beat Car Konstantin 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion na Bubnju in Niš.