Toplicanin Prokuplje 3–1 Brzi Brod: Result & Stats

Toplicanin Prokuplje

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Brzi Brod

4/29/2023

Srpska Liga - East · East - 24Stadion FK Toplicanin Prokuplje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje46%

×Draw24%

Brzi Brod30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Toplicanin ProkupljeExpected goals in this matchBrzi Brod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.34

Toplicanin Prokuplje

1.70

Brzi Brod

1.34

Toplicanin Prokuplje creates 27% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 60 away

1.47

creates per match

1.13

1.56

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Toplicanin Prokuplje

1.47

Brzi Brod

1.13

allows per match

Toplicanin Prokuplje

1.56

Brzi Brod

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par

Brzi Brod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toplicanin Prokuplje ↓

Brzi Brod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Toplicanin Prokuplje or draw

70%

Toplicanin Prokuplje or Brzi Brod

76%

Draw or Brzi Brod

54%

Winning margin

Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+

24%

Brzi Brod wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals

82%

Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals

51%

Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals

24%

Brzi Brod 1+ goals

74%

Brzi Brod 2+ goals

39%

Brzi Brod 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)

60%

Brzi Brod (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toplicanin Prokuplje at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.56 · 43 matches

Brzi Brod away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.47 + Brzi Brod defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.70

Brzi Brod attack 1.13 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more

46%

level

24%

Brzi Brod scores more

30%

Toplicanin Prokuplje at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Toplicanin Prokuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff