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Brzi Brod vs Toplicanin Prokuplje — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Brzi Brod
Brzi Brod
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Toplicanin Prokuplje
Toplicanin Prokuplje
10/9/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 9Stadion OFK Brzi Brod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Brzi Brod53%
×Draw23%
Toplicanin Prokuplje24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brzi Brod
1.82
Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.13

Brzi Brod creates 61% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 42 away

creates per match

Brzi Brod
1.64
Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.10

allows per match

Brzi Brod
1.16
Toplicanin Prokuplje
2.00

finishing

Brzi Brod+0.00on par
Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brzi Brod ↓

Toplicanin Prokuplje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Brzi Brod or draw
76%
Brzi Brod or Toplicanin Prokuplje
77%
Draw or Toplicanin Prokuplje
47%

Winning margin

Brzi Brod wins by 2+
30%
Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Brzi Brod 1+ goals
84%
Brzi Brod 2+ goals
54%
Brzi Brod 3+ goals
27%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals
68%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals
31%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Brzi Brod (draw refunded)
69%
Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brzi Brod at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brzi Brod attack 1.64 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.82

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.10 + Brzi Brod defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Brzi Brod scores more
53%
level
23%
Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more
24%

Brzi Brod at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Brzi Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brzi Brod vs Toplicanin Prokuplje

Brzi Brod and Toplicanin Prokuplje drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - East on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion OFK Brzi Brod in Brzi Brod.