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Tooro United vs Onduparaka — Premier League 2019

Tooro United
Tooro United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Onduparaka
Onduparaka
2/8/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Buhinga Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Tooro United36%
×Draw27%
Onduparaka37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tooro United
1.23
Onduparaka
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 55 away

creates per match

Tooro United
0.82
Onduparaka
0.93

allows per match

Tooro United
1.61
Onduparaka
1.64

finishing

Tooro United+0.00on par
Onduparaka+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tooro United ↓

Onduparaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tooro United or draw
63%
Tooro United or Onduparaka
73%
Draw or Onduparaka
64%

Winning margin

Tooro United wins by 2+
15%
Onduparaka wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tooro United 1+ goals
71%
Tooro United 2+ goals
35%
Tooro United 3+ goals
13%
Onduparaka 1+ goals
72%
Onduparaka 2+ goals
36%
Onduparaka 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tooro United (draw refunded)
49%
Onduparaka (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tooro United at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

Onduparaka away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tooro United attack 0.82 + Onduparaka defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.23

Onduparaka attack 0.93 + Tooro United defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tooro United scores more
36%
level
27%
Onduparaka scores more
37%

Onduparaka at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Onduparaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tooro United vs Onduparaka

Tooro United beat Onduparaka 1-0 in Premier League on February 8, 2022.

The match was played at Buhinga Football Stadium in Fort Portal.