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Onduparaka vs Tooro United — Premier League 2019

Onduparaka
Onduparaka
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Tooro United
Tooro United
1/8/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Green Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Onduparaka63%
×Draw21%
Tooro United15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Onduparaka
1.93
Tooro United
0.83

Onduparaka creates 133% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 27 away

creates per match

Onduparaka
1.19
Tooro United
0.59

allows per match

Onduparaka
1.07
Tooro United
2.67

finishing

Onduparaka+0.00on par
Tooro United+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onduparaka ↓

Tooro United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Onduparaka or draw
85%
Onduparaka or Tooro United
79%
Draw or Tooro United
37%

Winning margin

Onduparaka wins by 2+
38%
Tooro United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Onduparaka 1+ goals
85%
Onduparaka 2+ goals
57%
Onduparaka 3+ goals
30%
Tooro United 1+ goals
56%
Tooro United 2+ goals
20%
Tooro United 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Onduparaka (draw refunded)
80%
Tooro United (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onduparaka at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

Tooro United away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onduparaka attack 1.19 + Tooro United defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.93

Tooro United attack 0.59 + Onduparaka defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Onduparaka scores more
63%
level
21%
Tooro United scores more
15%

Onduparaka at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Onduparaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Onduparaka vs Tooro United

Onduparaka beat Tooro United 4-2 in Premier League on January 8, 2022.

The match was played at Green Light Stadium in Arua.